Commodities: Copper
SFR is an Australian-listed mid-tier copper producer with mines in Botswana and Spain with high leverage to copper prices. However, its scale is too small for BHP, ~200ktpa vs BHP’s multi-million tonne requirement. Secondly, and arguably less importantly in this case its mines are nowhere near BHPs focal points.
BHP’s portfolio of copper assets remains the jewel of the industry, and it still has substantial room to grow. The group’s 2025 financial results underscored this strength, with copper operations in Chile and South Australia delivering 48% of total earnings, while CEO Mike Henry highlighted ambitions to advance growth projects in Argentina and finally unlock the long-promised Resolution mine in Arizona.
Yesterday we heard BHP was walking away, not by choice, from Anglo American after having a last-minute tilt – but they’ve showed their intent to chase copper assets if economically viable. Anglo American (AAL LN) is now set to combine with Canadian Teck Resources (TECK US) to form its own giant of the mining/copper sector.
CSC is a Canadian miner that has recently dual-listed on the ASX, and it’s on a higher production tier relative to Sandfire at present. CSC has a strong growth pipeline (Mantoverde, Santo Domingo) with all assets in Americas (USA, Mexico, Chile), where BHP already operates.
Over the past few months, flooding at Ivanhoe Mines Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a rock blast at Codelco’s top mine in Chile and a massive fatal mudslide at Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia has propelled copper prices higher.
Lundin has a portfolio of long-life assets in Chile, Brazil, USA, and Portugal which is very aligned with BHP’s South American copper strategy with several assets near BHP’s existing footprint.
BHP has renewed its pursuit of Anglo American showing the “Big Australians” hunger for copper assets, with the industrial metal an integral part of global electrification.
The ASX-listed Global X Miners ETF (WIRE) remains one of our favourite vehicles for broad-based exposure to global copper miners, and it’s an ETF that Shawn’s Trading Ideas has used with success through 2025. Unlike precious metals, copper is driven by industrial uses, including global electrification and the AI revolution, as opposed to a mass of speculative retail money. However, copper has experienced a volatile year, being in the news a few times around tariffs, but the underlying supply/demand story remains intact, with MM believing it’s a metal for the future.
Interestingly while copper drifted lower in the last fortnight commodity traders are paying “overs” to secure US-bound shipments through 2026 in a return of the tariff trade.
SFR has corrected almost 12% from this months high but the weakness could be quickly forgotten as copper pushes higher. The stock is no stranger to pullbacks, having already corrected over 30% once and 15% twice in 2025; it’s the nature of cyclical resource stocks.
