Commodities: Copper
Comex copper (Cu) reversed early gains overnight as the news deteriorated between the US & Iran sending oil prices up ~3.5%. The slip ended a 3-day winning streak that had helped ASX miners post stellar gains this week although it was still the 2nd highest ever close as the industrial metal grinds higher towards the psychological US$7.00 level.
Gold (+77.5%) and copper (+69.8%) have been the standout performers over the past two years. Gold peaked when panic/speculative buying sent it up +122% in January 2026 before retracing, while copper has surged since mid-2025 as tariff-driven stockpiling compounded strong structural demand from electrification and AI infrastructure. Zinc (+49.5%) and Aluminium (+44.6%) have also delivered strong gains, benefiting from the same investment themes.
We’ve all read about the bullish tailwinds of the EV transition and AI-driven data centre build-out, with both trends driving demand for the same critical commodities — most notably copper (Cu), and to a lesser extent uranium, lithium and nickel. Cu sits at the centre of both themes, while decade-long mine development timelines continue to constrain new supply, underpinning the case for sustained price strength and potential equity rerating’s for producers. The key risks are weaker Chinese demand, slower EV adoption and AI infrastructure spending falling short of today’s lofty expectations – importantly, the crowd is definitely bullish towards copper.
We continue to believe BHP and RIO are well positioned to benefit from higher Cu prices, EV Truck adoption (reduced fuel bills) and AI efficiencies, but as there are always two sides to a coin, we’re also conscious this view is a consensus one. Hence, we are likely to remain active around our exposures towards the miners, trimming strength so we have the capacity to buy bouts of weakness.
Copper prices edged higher last week which we interpreted as constructive considering the turbulence unfolding in oil prices and the “AI Trade” – one of the industrial metals biggest drivers in recent years has been its role in global electrification: The green energy transition, spanning electricity grids, EVs, and renewables is now considered the primary structural driver of incremental copper consumption growth, with AI infrastructure increasingly cited as an additional demand catalyst.
Appreciate MM’s view on this mining entity, looks like a lot going for them especially the future outlook.
Thank you again for the continuous great work.
Comex copper (Cu) rallied ~3% overnight sending related stocks sharply higher, including Freeport McMoRan (+5.7%), which we hold in the MM International Equities Portfolio. The news flow remains positive towards the industrial metal, but it was the sharp bounce in the AI Trade which likely improved sentiment in last night’s session.
Copper managed to advance last week but gains were muted due to fears the Iran conflict would escalate and weigh on economic growth as oil traded near US$100/barrel – this feels like another market poised to advance if/when the US and Iran can find a lasting resolution. The same three factors keep driving the copper price with the net impact bullish:
