Commodities: Gold
Good Morning Gents,
I’ve been out of range for a while only to come home to see my commodity stocks being slaughtered (gold, silver, copper, nickel, uranium) in direct contrast to all the talk of a commodities super cycle. I have a mix of explorers, developers and producers but none have been spared. Can I have both your diagnosis and prognosis for this sorry malady?
Thank you once again. You guys have proven to be head and shoulders above other analysts I’ve used.
Markets have been both fascinating and almost scary at times over the past 18 months. Investors have navigated everything from Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with each new headline triggering sharp moves across equities, bonds, commodities and currencies. However, generating alpha (adding value to portfolios) has proven far more difficult than simply buying the dip. Momentum has dominated markets, pushing winning trades well beyond what many investors considered reasonable, only for reversals to be equally ruthless.
Golds experiencing a tough few months with bond yields now weighing on the non-yielding precious metal. Previously the higher oil price was also causing some selling of the precious metal by emerging countries struggling with the elevated prices – Turkey have been one of the largest net sellers in 2026 after accumulating through 2025.
In yesterday’s webinar we were asked why the likes of gold were so weak of late. The answer is hopefully pretty clear in the chart below:
The cost of money has a huge influence on gold and this was illustrated perfectly at the back end of last week when global bond yields pushed higher in tandem with the oil price. It’s a simple equation at the moment, in the short term if you believe a Middle East resolution is imminent, buy precious metals&/or related stocks otherwise be patient.
Barrick delivered a strong March quarter result, with earnings ahead of expectations, gold sales better than forecast, costs materially lower while the Board authorised a US$3bn share buyback. Shares rallied 9.2%.
