Commodities: Lithium
We are cutting ALB
ALB is the world’s largest listed lithium producer and is leading the way in 2026, breaking to new lows overnight, having more than halved from its May high. The recent news and underlying weakness in the stock are causing MN to reconsider our position.
LTR has looked after our Emerging Companies Portfolio over the last year, but our August purchase at $1.19 is looking concerning after initially rallying more than 12%. Similar to our holding in PLS, we are now questioning if we still want to own LTR as the news flow goes from bad to worse.
Another similar picture, IGO may be a very low-cost lithium producer benefiting from Greenbushes’ exceptional ore grade, but it will still struggle if Li prices continue to slip lower.
Mineral Resources isn’t a pure play Li stock but its where the company’s growth is perceived to come from; hence, it’s dancing to the same tune as PLS. It’s easy to think that MIN has simply come down to 3-month support, but the downside momentum combined with the 3-pronged negative news makes us feel it is likely to break lower.
Existing demand: Global lithium demand reached approximately 1.6 million tonnes of LCE in 2025, up around 30% year-on-year, with EVs remaining the dominant consumer at roughly 63% of demand. However, the fastest growth is increasingly coming from battery energy storage systems (BESS), where demand surged more than 80% in 2025 to account for around a quarter of global consumption, highlighting how stationary storage has rapidly emerged as a second major pillar of lithium demand alongside EVs.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) is the world’s largest EV battery manufacturer and a major player in the lithium supply chain. It is principally listed in Shenzhen (300750 CH) and Hong Kong (3750 HK), with its shares also traded in Vienna (CATL AV). CATL supplies many of the world’s largest automakers, including BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen, while Tesla also uses CATL batteries in a number of models.
As mentioned before Cu has struggled in recent session following a Reuters news story, but it’s nothing compared to the industrial metal Lithium (Li), which has had the kitchen sink thrown at it after rallying strongly in the first half of 2026 on genuine physical tightness combined with Electric Vehicle (EV) and Energy Storage System (ESS) demand recovery. Li has fallen in three distinct waves in recent weeks.
Lithium endured another volatile week as fresh evidence of oversupply collided with concerns over future battery demand. The initial shock came from revised Chinese inventory data showing lithium stockpiles had more than doubled under a new methodology, triggering a sharp sell-off in Guangzhou lithium carbonate futures.
