Commodities: Uranium
A strong March-quarter result from Cameco, with the uranium producer beating expectations across earnings, revenue, production and gross profit. The result was driven by higher uranium sales volumes, a better average realised uranium price and a growing contribution from Westinghouse, reinforcing the broader investment case around nuclear energy and long-term uranium demand. Management also maintained FY26 guidance, which we thought would have been taken positively, and it was initially, however the stock reversed lower throughout the session to finish down -3.2%.
PDN +2.76%: Provided a solid update today, upgrading FY26 production guidance, with the company flagging stronger output from the Langer Heinrich mine as operations continue to ramp up.
This ASX-traded ETF provides Australian investors with diversified exposure to leading global uranium stocks, including those on the ASX, with Paladin (5.4%) the largest ASX holding. This is a very volatile sector, and although it surged more than 250% at its best from a 2025 low, it’s experienced two 25-30% corrections along the way. However, compared to the volatility on the stock level, this is nothing, with Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) and Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) both enduring far steeper corrections in the last 12-months.
NexGen is a Canadian uranium developer sitting on what is planned to be the world’s largest and lowest-cost uranium mine, the Rook I Project in Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, making it one of the most strategically significant pure-play uranium bets available to ASX investors ahead of the looming nuclear fuel demand surge.
At MM we are very bullish the “Uranium Trade” over the coming years as AI sends energy demands soaring higher and although nuclear is not on the menu in Australia, it’s coming to the fore around the world with Small Modular Reactors (SMR) the focal point.
The URNM ETF rallied +5.7% on Wednesday, mirroring the move in the gold sector. Structural demand continues to build with utilities increasingly returning to the long-term contracting market after years of under-procurement, while supply growth remains constrained following a decade of underinvestment across the uranium industry. With demand rising on AI-driven power needs and the uranium market tightening toward deficit, we see continued upside for uranium exposure, including the URNM ETF.
At MM, we believe nuclear power is the obvious clean energy source that works today, with US big tech agreeing, as they pour money into Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Nuclear power accounts for ~10% of global electricity generation today with demand set to rise substantially over the coming years as AI usage ratchets up.
Rising oil prices are reinforcing the case for nuclear power as a stable, low-carbon energy source with predictable costs, while a structural lift in electricity demand—driven by AI and data centre growth, is adding further momentum. Although nuclear rollout remains gradual, the outlook for uranium is tightening significantly, with demand projected to outstrip supply by a wide margin over the next decade.
PDN recently delivered a solid result discussed in detail Here. The uranium sector is not for the faint hearted but we are bullish and believe investors can continue to adopt a buy the dip, trim the strength approach towards PDN. This week we heard that PDN is optimistic that its Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia will reach full capacity by June, just as a supply gap opens.
