Sectors: Energy
Probably a stock out of left field – but with a positive catch. Not many microcaps with $100m market cap have a recent history of generating real revenue, real cashflow, pay taxes and make a net profit. They operate and 63% own a single gas producing onshore well in Italy. They have 4 near term onshore wells going through regulatory processes with a Government very positively attuned to increase local gas production. They also have an offshore permit for a shallow water gas field close to infrastructure.
A very clean balance sheet with cash in bank and short-term Italian Gov’t bonds well ahead of total liabilities and are likely to fund the onshore new wells without extra borrowing or capital raise.
The share price has moved up 50% in the last month but welcome your quick evaluation whether further upside likely. I am a holder with a position acquired in July.
I read your notes about the pullback in uranium stocks, writing: “slower data-centre construction could temper expectations for incremental nuclear-power demand. Their weakness on Monday alongside Asian semiconductor stocks illustrates how closely the market has linked the themes.”
Have investors forgotten that there are 440 nuclear reactors that were here well before data centres, with a further 120 planned, all of which are useless without uranium?
Together with the rotation out of precious metals, this market is making less and less sense to me.
Fundamentals appear to have become the rationale of last resort?
New Hope’s FY26 result released yesterday was broadly in line at the earnings level, but the more important story is the setup into FY27. Earnings fell sharply as realised coal prices declined and costs rose through the New Acland ramp-up, but production increased, the balance sheet strengthened and coal prices have already rebounded materially since year-end.
The chart of WDS shown below is one that’s concerned us in recent months, i.e. it’s bullish suggesting oil will remain firm, stoking inflation, weighing on rate-sensitive stocks. Both charts shown on the energy sector today suggest oil prices will be higher for longer, but of course with plenty of volatility along the way.
With NEC & GQG looking at the financials – are these stocks in the oversold territory.
MM owns GQG and has sold NEC in Jan.
Are you considering picking up NEC at the current level ?
On a side note – what do you think about POW which is a new uranium player and recently IPO`ed ?
YAL has been on a rollercoaster ride in 2026, initially climbing from around $5 in January to above $6 following its FY25 result before surging towards $9 in April as metallurgical coal prices strengthened and speculation around the Kestrel acquisition gathered momentum.
New Hope (NHC) is primarily a thermal coal producer. Its two QLD operating mines both produce thermal coal for export and domestic power generation. The miner has been one of the ASX’s standout performers in 2026, rallying ~49% YTD from ~$4 as stronger thermal coal prices, solid operational delivery and improving broker sentiment drove a significant re-rating.
The key difference between thermal and coking coal is what they’re used for. Thermal coal is burned to generate heat and electricity, primarily in power stations, whereas metallurgical (coking) coal is used to make steel. Coking coal has particular chemical and physical properties that allow it to be heated in the absence of oxygen to produce coke, which is then used in blast furnaces to convert iron ore into steel. The important difference is that high-quality hard coking coal is relatively scarce and cannot easily be replaced by ordinary thermal coal.
