Commodities: Lithium
MIN delivered a strong 1H result, with earnings beating expectations as margins improved across the business, particularly in mining services. Operational performance is strengthening as key assets ramp up, and guidance remains unchanged with Onslow performing well. No dividend was declared, as expected, with the focus still on reducing debt.
MIN follows the iron ore and lithium price closely and at this stage of the cycle we can see the likes of fellow lithium names PLS Group (PLS) falling ~10% hence we are in no hurry to buy back into MIN. The stock rallied close to five fold over the last twelve months and the current pullback, at this stage, is nothing more sinister than consolidation following the stellar advance. A “washout” style move, sub $50, would provide some excellent risk/reward in our opinion.
Hedge funds have shifted their short positions away from ASX resource names that benefited from the recent commodities boom, targeting consumer-facing stocks such as Treasury Wine Estates, Domino’s Pizza and Guzman y Gomez amid concerns around weakening household spending.
On Wednesday night (AEST) Zimbabwe suspended exports of lithium concentrates and raw minerals with immediate effect, as the government moved to compel mining companies to establish local processing capacity. Mines Minister Polite Kambamura said the ban will remain in place until further notice and will only be lifted once producers comply with domestic beneficiation requirements.
The lithium sector has roared higher as the underlying battery metal more than doubled from its mid-2025 low. The combination of the increased rate of EV purchases and increasingly bullish estimates of surging demand for battery storage due to AI has propelled the ACDC ETF up +120% from its 2025 low but we feel the Zimbabwe news could be the last piece of the puzzle in the short term to support the advance.
This US-traded ETF provides broad exposure to the global lithium-battery supply chain, including companies involved in battery technology, battery metals and materials (such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper), electric vehicle producers and related technology providers. BATT tracks the EQM Lithium & Battery Technology Index and holds a diversified portfolio of large and mid-cap global stocks:
Nickel/lithium miner IGO reported an “ok” result last week, but its still losing money – covered Here. Again the stock looks interesting after retracing 18%, largely following the lithium price lower, while it’s not our top pick, further strength would not be a surprise.
Iron ore/lithium miner MIN also reported solid numbers last week – covered Here. We exited MIN in January above $60 and aren’t planning to re-enter at this stage, but the risk/reward is certainly more appealing after its well over 20% pullback. The stock is likely to follow the lithium price over the coming months, but we have turned more cautious here given the potential for mine restarts.
PLS reported solid numbers last week – covered Here. On balance we can see PLS trading between $4 and $5 for most of 2026 following its five-fold advance from its 2025 low.
Lithium stocks caught our eye on Monday gaining strength after correcting over the last few weeks. They have rallied strongly over the past six months as the battery metal more than doubled in price, driven by a sharper-than-expected rebound in global demand from electric vehicles, utility-scale energy storage and other battery markets, which has spurred restocking and forward buying and created a powerful tailwind for prices.
